A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or advocates are willing to participate even with the basics. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. Both writes two essays that strive for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass national emblems, levies, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has possesses something to gain from the other's arguments."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster should engage with the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
